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W7EES > SWPC 09.10.14 06:21l 52 Lines 1921 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 599FW7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<VE3UIL<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 141001/2340 22943@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0306Z from Region 2172 (S09W69). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 01/0602Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2103Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/2302Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1627 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (04 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 45/35/20
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 155
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20
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