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CX2SA > SWPC 27.11.16 21:56l 61 Lines 2189 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58282-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 161117/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:58282 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58282-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov,
19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 17/1057Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/2121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Nov) and unsettled to active levels
on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 079
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 079/078/080
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 006/005-012/016-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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