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CX2SA > SWPC 27.11.16 21:56l 62 Lines 2220 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58697-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<N9PMO<CX2SA
Sent: 161124/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:58697 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58697-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 24/0831Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 24/1523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 541 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 079
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 079/079/080
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 020/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 016/020-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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