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CX2SA > SWPC 27.11.16 21:56l 62 Lines 2235 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58355-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 161118/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:58355 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58355-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 410 km/s at 17/2304Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/1842Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/2247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5803 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Nov), unsettled to active
levels on day two (20 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(21 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 078
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 011/015-013/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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