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CX2SA > SWPC 27.11.16 21:56l 61 Lines 2241 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57915-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 161113/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57915 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57915-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 767 km/s at 13/0701Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 12/2327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 13/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10253 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (15 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (16 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 078
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 011/015-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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