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CX2SA > SWPC 27.11.16 21:56l 62 Lines 2245 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58483-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<CX2SA
Sent: 161120/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:58483 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58483-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 20/2006Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
20/1100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2716 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (22 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (23 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 076
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 075/078/080
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 008/008-013/020-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/40
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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