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CX2SA > SWPC 30.11.16 00:24l 63 Lines 2344 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59050-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161129/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:59050 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59050-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1723Z from Region 2615 (S08E51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 29/0344Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
29/0939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18834 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 086
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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