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CX2SA > SWPC 01.12.16 00:24l 63 Lines 2295 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59120-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161130/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:59120 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59120-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/2338Z from Region 2615 (S08E51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/0142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
30/1715Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22208 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 084
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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