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CX2SA > SWPC 13.12.16 00:26l 61 Lines 2172 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59953-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161212/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:59953 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59953-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 11/2154Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/2345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
12/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 071
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 070/075/075
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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