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CX2SA > SWPC 02.01.17 00:30l 61 Lines 2201 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61482-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170101/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:61482 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:61482-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 01/0027Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/2211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/0353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 609 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (03 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(04 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 073
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 008/010-009/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/35/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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