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CX2SA > SWPC 12.01.17 00:23l 60 Lines 2142 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62384-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170111/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62384 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62384-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 11/0659Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8687 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 075
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 074/073/075
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/010-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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