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CX2SA > SWPC 13.01.17 00:23l 62 Lines 2270 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62482-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170112/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62482 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62482-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1618Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan,
14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 11/2135Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 12/1835Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/1737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7626 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 076
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 080/082/085
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 007/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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