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CX2SA > SWPC 16.01.17 00:23l 62 Lines 2222 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62746-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170115/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62746 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62746-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jan,
17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 349 km/s at 15/0228Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/1742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3432 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (17 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 078
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-007/008-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/45
Minor Storm 05/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/70
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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