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CX2SA > SWPC 17.01.17 00:24l 61 Lines 2212 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62827-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170116/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:62827 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62827-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 342 km/s at 16/0418Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/0425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3085 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jan) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 078
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 007/008-018/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/45/45
Minor Storm 05/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/70/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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