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CX2SA > SWPC 26.01.17 00:25l 61 Lines 2230 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63451-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170125/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63451 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63451-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan,
27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 370 km/s at 25/1520Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 25/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/0737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 735 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 085
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 006/005-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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