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CX2SA > SWPC 27.01.17 00:25l 61 Lines 2208 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63547-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170126/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63547 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63547-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan,
28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 26/2032Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 26/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
26/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 083
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 011/015-011/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/40/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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