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CX2SA > SWPC 29.01.17 00:26l 61 Lines 2212 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63769-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170128/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63769 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63769-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan,
30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 27/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/1203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/0200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2495 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 Jan, 30 Jan) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 079
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 078/077/075
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 011/012-010/012-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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