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CX2SA > SWPC 30.01.17 00:26l 61 Lines 2225 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63868-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170129/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63868 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63868-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/0249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 077
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 076/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 009/010-017/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/45/35
Minor Storm 05/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/65/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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