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CX2SA > SWPC 31.01.17 00:26l 61 Lines 2213 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63949-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170130/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:63949 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:63949-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 549 km/s at 30/1751Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
30/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/1239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1773 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01
Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 077
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 076/075/075
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 020/025-015/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/45/30
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 70/60/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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