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CX2SA > SWPC 17.10.14 00:30l 61 Lines 2211 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11514-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 141016/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:11514 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:11514-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
16/1303Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct,
19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at
16/1500Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0313Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2013Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 139
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 150/160/170
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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