| |
CX2SA > SWPC 05.02.17 00:27l 60 Lines 2143 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 64340-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170204/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:64340 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:64340-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 04/0459Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/0105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22414 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb,
06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 074
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 007/010-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/30
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
