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CX2SA > SWPC 16.02.17 00:23l 61 Lines 2203 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 247-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170215/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:247 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:247-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 315 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1016 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Feb, 18
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 075
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 075/075/074
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-011/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/45/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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