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CX2SA > SWPC 19.02.17 00:23l 61 Lines 2206 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 520-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170218/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:520 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:520-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb,
20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 18/1045Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 18/1751Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 077
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 010/012-009/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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