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CX2SA > SWPC 21.02.17 00:23l 62 Lines 2246 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 667-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170220/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:667 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:667-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb,
22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 19/2234Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/1427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/0238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1049 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (22 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (23 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 081
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 081/081/081
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 010/010-012/016-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/40
Minor Storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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