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CX2SA > SWPC 22.02.17 00:24l 61 Lines 2203 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 740-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 170221/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:740 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:740-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb,
23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 486 km/s at 20/2149Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
21/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Feb, 24 Feb)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (23 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 083
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 083/083/083
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 012/015-016/020-013/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor Storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/60/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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