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CX2SA > SWPC 01.03.17 00:25l 61 Lines 2219 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1317-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170228/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:1317 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:1317-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar,
02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 28/0752Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02
Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 082
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 082/082/081
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 021/030-015/020-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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