| |
CX2SA > SWPC 05.04.17 00:27l 68 Lines 2658 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4103-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170404/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:4103 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:4103-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0712Z from Region 2644 (N13W92). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (05 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 04/1548Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 04/1035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 04/0932Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 18021 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Apr, 07 Apr)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Apr), have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (06 Apr) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (07 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 35/20/10
Class X 15/05/05
Proton 20/15/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 094
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 090/086/082
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 009/012-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
