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CX2SA > SWPC 13.04.17 00:25l 59 Lines 2133 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4779-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170412/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:4779 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:4779-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 12/0336Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1799 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (14 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 071
Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 070/070/075
90 Day Mean 12 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 006/005-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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