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CX2SA > SWPC 18.04.17 00:29l 62 Lines 2319 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5261-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170417/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:5261 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:5261-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0247Z. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 330 km/s at 17/1332Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1717 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Apr) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M 10/15/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 075
Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 020/018/015
90 Day Mean 17 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 016/020-013/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/40
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/50/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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