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CX2SA > SWPC 23.04.17 23:22l 61 Lines 2227 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5668-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170423/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:5668 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:5668-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Apr,
25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 813 km/s at 23/2023Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 23/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 23/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 20544 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (24 Apr) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on days two and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 083
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 037/061
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 030/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 023/030-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/40/40
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/60/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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