| |
CX2SA > SWPC 25.10.14 00:27l 64 Lines 2404 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11739-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 141024/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:11739 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:11739-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0748Z from Region 2192 (S12W21). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26
Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
512 km/s at 24/0635Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0059Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1435Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Oct). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold 25-27 Oct.
III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 45/45/45
Proton 35/40/45
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 218
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 220/220/220
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 009/010-007/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
