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CX2SA > SWPC 16.05.17 00:22l 59 Lines 2100 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7331-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170515/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:7331 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:7331-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 609 km/s at 15/1854Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 15/1400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
15/1005Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 May) and active
to major storm levels on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).
III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 071
Predicted 16 May-18 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 15 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 014/020-021/030-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 25/40/40
Major-severe storm 05/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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