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CX2SA > SWPC 27.10.14 00:24l 64 Lines 2453 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11787-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 141026/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:11787 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:11787-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
26/1056Z from Region 2192 (S12W46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
422 km/s at 26/0537Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1801Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0822Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3489 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 55/55/55
Proton 40/45/45
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 217
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 220/220/210
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 011/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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