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CX2SA > SWPC 28.05.17 00:25l 61 Lines 2231 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8626-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170527/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:8626 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8626-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 May,
29 May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 27/1827Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 27/2050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at
27/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 May) and quiet levels on day three (30 May).
III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 082
Predicted 28 May-30 May 082/080/075
90 Day Mean 27 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 013/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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