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CX2SA > SWPC 31.05.17 00:25l 61 Lines 2228 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8844-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170530/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:8844 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8844-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 May) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 820 km/s at 29/2103Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 30/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 May, 01 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (02 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 074
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 30 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 005/005-005/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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