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CX2SA > SWPC 02.06.17 00:26l 63 Lines 2308 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9086-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170601/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:9086 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:9086-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0143Z from Region 2661 (N05E64). There is currently 1 numbered
sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jun,
03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 01/2025Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/1318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 802 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Jun, 04
Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day two (03 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 076
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 076/077/078
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 009/010-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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