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CX2SA > SWPC 03.06.17 00:26l 64 Lines 2327 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9193-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170602/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:9193 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:9193-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
02/1757Z from Region 2661 (N06E54). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun,
04 Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 01/2210Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/2228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 497 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (05
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 078
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 012/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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