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CX2SA > SWPC 10.07.17 00:24l 62 Lines 2186 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13311-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170709/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:13311 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:13311-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0318Z from Region 2665 (S06E24). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul,
12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 09/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 09/1338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 09/0831Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11
Jul, 12 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 091
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 022/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 015/018-011/012-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 20/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/40/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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