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CX2SA > SWPC 11.07.17 00:24l 63 Lines 2295 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13397-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170710/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:13397 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:13397-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/0031Z from Region 2665 (S06E11). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul,
13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 10/0732Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 10/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Jul, 12 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 095
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 026/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 011/012-011/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/50/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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