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CX2SA > SWPC 01.11.14 00:25l 62 Lines 2307 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11906-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 141031/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:11906 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:11906-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
31/0101Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Nov) and likely to
be low on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 531 km/s at
31/1928Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1229Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1475 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov,
02 Nov, 03 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 10/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 121
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 120/115/110
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 009/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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