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CX2SA > SWPC 19.07.17 00:24l 63 Lines 2349 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14234-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170718/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:14234 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:14234-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0040Z from old Region 2665 - now around the West limb. There are
currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (19 Jul) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed averaged near 550 km/s. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/0357Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0055Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 5531 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul)
and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 078
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 023/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/008-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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