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CX2SA > SWPC 24.07.17 00:25l 60 Lines 2166 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14749-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170723/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:14749 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:14749-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 23/2039Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/1224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5776 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 071
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 018/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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