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CX2SA > SWPC 31.07.17 00:23l 61 Lines 2198 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15403-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170730/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15403 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15403-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Jul,
01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 30/0025Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
30/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7053 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 070
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 010/012-010/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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