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CX2SA > SWPC 01.08.17 00:23l 61 Lines 2175 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15473-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170731/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15473 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15473-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds
averaged around 330 km/s. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2237Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 31/1608Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8563
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (01 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (02 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 072
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 075/078/080
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 006/005-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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