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CX2SA > SWPC 17.08.17 00:23l 61 Lines 2245 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16930-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170816/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:16930 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:16930-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 16/2047Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
16/1936Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1338 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Aug, 18
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 077
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 017/026-016/020-012/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/65/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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