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CX2SA > SWPC 21.08.17 00:23l 63 Lines 2308 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17307-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170820/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17307 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17307-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0152Z from Region 2672 (N05E75). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug,
23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 813 km/s at 20/0248Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 19/2151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-4 nT at 19/2256Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 23392 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Aug, 22 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 086
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 023/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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