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OK0NAG > SOLAR 21.08.17 15:40l 122 Lines 4320 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
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Date: Mon, 21 Aug 2017 12:27:34 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU233
UGEOA 30512 70821 1230/ 9930/
12212 21212 30212
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 21 Aug 2017 until 23 Aug
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2017 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2017 10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Aug 2017 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Active Region (AR) 2671 (McIntosh class: Fkc; Mag.type: Beta-
Gamma) has shown some evidence of flux emergence in HMI magnetogram
observations; however it produced only B-class flares over the past 24
hours. The largest flare among them was a B9.3 flare peaking at 07:40UT
today. New active region 2672 (McIntosh class: Dao; Mag.type: Beta) has
rotated into view from the eastern limb today and already produced three
C-class flares. The largest flare was C5.9 flare peaking at 03:16 UT. No
Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The
greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past
24 hours. There are no potentially geoeffective coronal holes on the Sun.
More C-class flares are expected over the next 24 hours with some
probability of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed has decreased from around 730 to 570 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained below 5 nT.
The Bz component fluctuated between -4 and +4.5 nT. The geomagnetic field
was at active to unsettled levels; Kp NOAA index ranged between 2-3 and
local K index (Dourbes) between 1 and 4. Mostly quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next few days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 061, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70821 1230/ 20///
1//// 20860 3023/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70821 1230/ 21/07 21102
10042 2//// 3//// 4622/ 50460 60023 41012 28720
10043 2//// 3//// 4442/ 50140 60007 17005 02000
99999
USSPS 31405 21078 05042 42046 41012 25623 43014 17005 45407
USSPS 81202 19074 03332 59035 11812 27623
UMAGF 30503 70821 1004/ 20060 1/020 23223 33322
UMAGF 31523 70821 0000/ 20001 1/023 24532 33434
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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