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CX2SA > SWPC 06.11.14 00:26l 64 Lines 2362 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12103-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 141105/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:12103 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:12103-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
05/0947Z from Region 2205 (N16E56). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07
Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
597 km/s at 05/1939Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/0521Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0647Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Nov, 08
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 135
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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