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CX2SA > SWPC 28.08.17 19:55l 62 Lines 2299 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17769-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IU4DTL<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA
Sent: 170826/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17769 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17769-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 432 km/s at 26/2058Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
26/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/1621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10279 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 078
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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