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CX2SA > SWPC 07.11.14 00:23l 63 Lines 2331 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12121-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<I3XTY<I0OJJ<VE3UIL<ZS0MEE<N9PMO<CX2SA
Sent: 141106/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:12121 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:12121-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
06/0346Z from Region 2205 (N15E46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08
Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
575 km/s at 05/2123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/2047Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Nov,
08 Nov, 09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 136
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 007/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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